5/10/25 Best Idea For The Week Ahead

I want to start this off with a note on the bots messaging you. I have gotten so many messages from people showing me bots on twitter, discord, and now substack pretending to be me selling you all things. I will never message you unless you message me first, I do not use signal, and I don’t have anything but this substack so anyone messaging you about anything else is not met. Ignore them/report them, whatever you want but unfortunately these bots are just part of life and I cannot do anything about them.

As for the market, the SPY daily we discussed in the recap friday, here is the weekly, we are stuck right below the 21 week and the 50 week. So while we are ok on a shorter timeframe, the longer timeframes are close to a larger breakout but this is typically a spot you want to de-risk until we end up on the other side of that yellow line(50 week) but we may have just gotten the news we needed to spark that move above as President Trump just tweeted something big tonight.

Here is the wildcard, Trump is out posting on truth social on Saturday night, he is saying he negotiated a total reset with China. China walked out of the meeting earlier in the day so we’d have to see the details of this total reset, but this could be the event that sends the market over the 200 day and gets a real uptrend started. It’s hard until we know more because Trump has been known to say things to pump stocks so it’s hard to believe China just caved quickly in a manner that would materially benefit us and negatively impact them. If true, you can expect a big move up on futures tomorrow night at the open.

We don’t have anything gauge how the market will react to this news except crypto and right now Bitcoin just rallied $1000 in the past hour and a half on Saturday night and that is usually a risk on/off weekend barometer.

This week’s best idea is a name that has seen multiple recent put sales of huge size. Actually it saw 4 put sales of massive size in the last 2 weeks. I actually sold puts on this one earlier in the week myself but more large trades came in after as well.