5/1/25 Recap

The SPY opened up over the 50 day moving average for the first time since mid February today if you need any more confirmation the downtrend was broken. Here we are 5 days into this new uptrend and things are looking good now. Microsoft and Meta both had solid reports and today we await Apple and Amazon who hopefully won’t bring this party crashing down with some bad guidance. Now with the gap up today you can move up short puts to the gap from yesterday at 556.52. This is one of the most hated rallies on record every real world datapoint says stocks should be down but that’s why I try to look at charts and flows here and not news. The chart has been very honest with us starting with the first close over the 21 ema 6 sessions back.

I want to mention this trade here because I don’t want you all seeing this in the table below and chasing it. This morning I tweeted at 9:02 CST posting a massive MSTR call buy of 44,325 calls bought at 10:01:32 EST and I joked about MSTR getting ready to fly because this was a near $200m trade.

You can see it was 388.21 when that trade was placed and here we are 1.5 hours later and MSTR was just $403 before cooling off a tad. It rallied $15 within 90 minutes after that trade came in. It’s uncanny how some of these massive call buys can light a stock on fire like that instantly. I try to get the recap out mid day but sometimes these run too quick so always check the timestamp in the database and see where the stock was when I logged it on your chart if you’re interested. This remains one of the market leaders up 25% in 9 sessions for now and we saw this bitcoin trade getting ready to go with all the IBIT call positioning as the top trend over the last 2 weeks.

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