5/14/25 Recap

The SPY is approaching max overbought levels and the IWM is actually red today, so we may be nearing that little break that would naturally come after the run we’ve had the last 3 weeks. Right now until we make a new all time high over 613.23 you have to be mindful of the fact we may just be making a lower high so while everything feels euphoric again, until the price action confirms a new high, you can’t get too excited. We should be running into the JPM collar right around here so I expect a small cooling period. Right now all pullbacks will be bought at that confluence below where the 8 ema, 100, and 200 are all converging. That should be a spot you target if you want to sell puts for this week, below that there is another gap from friday’s close that is the next natural spot to target selling puts at. Today the Mag 7 names were keeping the market strong with Tesla and Google leading the way, Tesla had all those calls yesterday and even a risk reversal on that levered TSLL product so the move there isn’t too shocking. A healthy move here would be some sideways/down where we catch up to the 8 ema which is currently 3% lower at 574.

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