5/18/26 Recap

The SPY is losing the 8 ema right now, that is your first warning sign always to take some chips off. We have not done that since early April. Every other time we came down, tested the 8 ema and bounced. Today we’ve got to watch the close to see but we may ver well get our first close under the 8 in a month and a half. Is it the end of the world? No, but it does signal a potential trend shift. If we lose that, our next support is the 21 ema just over 720. Oil completely reversed from red to green, China signaled deflation last night, rates are elevated. I know none of that seems to matter to markets and we keep going up but you figure sometime, something has to give. Things are just really not that good out there but everyone is invested in AI and its carrying our market right now. Nvidia earnings this week are going to be a make or break moment along with whatever we end up doing with Iran because right now oil is saying there is no deal there.

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