5/19/25 Recap

The SPY was bought off the lows after that debt downgrade friday gapped us down. We still have not touched the 8 ema in 9 sessions and are likely just consolidating here as it just catches up. We have a large gap open at 566 from 6 sessions back and that’s the level I would target if you’re a seller of short puts. We are just trending along at overbought levels and this morning it seemed like the trade war with China took a turn in the wrong direction as they were very upset with our chip restrictions which were apparently seeing changes from what was agreed upon recently. Also another headwind is the 30 year crossing the 5% mark. Going back to February Bessent said that was his main focus and rates have gone in the opposite direction. The bond market is what forced Trump to give up the tariff crusade multiple times in April and last night the bond market vehemently said it was not happy with the proposed tax bill. Going over 5% is now showing a lack of confidence in the US and its ability to repay these obligations. This is something big to watch because if rates keep pressing higher, it will absolutely matter to equities. Meanwhile Japanese rates hit 3.5% their highest point coming off a long period of zero rates. We are just seeing bond markets globally going nuts and they are not happy with these governments, its remarkable how equities seem mostly oblivious to this point.

My Open Book

1. I sold BTDR 10 puts in June for .22 after my weekend best idea 200x

2. I sold IBIT weekly 57 puts for .53 50x

3. I rolled my IBIT 35 short puts in January to 45 500x