5/2 Recap. Something Bad Is Unfolding.

These debt ceiling negotiations are not going well, the likelihood of a default seems low, but so did a Russian invasion of Ukraine early last year. The fact we haven’t made any advances doesn’t seem ideal. Then you have the fed who looks poised to hike rates again tomorrow in the face of all these bank collapses. They almost have to because if they don’t I think it would spook the market even more. Then you have oil plunging 5%. The defensive energy names of the past year like XOM,CVX, OXY were decimated today. It’s just this confluence of things all happening at once and you have to wonder, is something finally breaking. The VIX is heating up for the second time in 1 week and 20% daily moves on the VIX are not a sign of health.

The SPY

This broke down again below the 8 ema, but bounced right off the October uptrend, the seesaw continues. We probably won’t have a direction until the fed passes tomorrow and Apple reports on Thursday. These huge daily swings are not normal and definitely not a sign of a healthy market. If we do breakdown 405 should be the first level of support.

Today’s Unusual Options Activity & What Stood Out

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