5/28/25 Recap

The SPY is just waiting on NVDA to report today to give us our next direction. If this report is strong, and there’s no reason to think it wouldn’t be, the entire AI complex could heat up again and be our catalyst to new highs. If NVDA guides poorly things could get messy for the market and with their restrictions in China, I think that would be the only potential landmine in the report because they post strong earnings otherwise.

One momentum area that is losing steam that could be a warning sign is bitcoin. This has really led the way the last few months decoupling from the market in April and rising almost 50% off the April lows. Below is IBIT, the bitcoin etf, and it is losing the 8 ema today. Now it has done that before recently but there have not been any closes below that level in a long time, if this closes under there today, watch out, 61.10 is the level to watch. The next stop would probably be that rising 21 ema just over 58 now and nothing serious is wrong just normal buy the rumor, sell the news action with Bitcoin 2025 in Vegas this week as the big catalyst for the recent run and now a selloff into that. This is your barometer of momentum in the market and for now it is stalling out.

My Open Book

I’m very happy to have closed out of all those MSTR shares I had last week, it is down $50 a few sessions since and just looks terrible now below the 8 and 21 ema with a bearish crossover unfolding. That is why you have to maintain your discipline and don’t overthink things when you have a big position. When key moving averages break, the market is speaking to you and I prefer an act first ask questions later approach. MSTR will be fine longer term and I hope I’m put these shares at 340 below the 50 day this week. I will turn around and sell some really aggressive calls for next week at 345 or 350.

Trades I added