5/4 Recap

Well, we broke down, again. Last week we had a daily close below the October uptrend and immediately reversed course after META earnings. It was a headfake, this time we’re doing again right before AAPL reports today. Apple has given every warning imaginable, we know Mac sales are -40%, we know Qualcomm warned yesterday and Apple didn’t like it. I’m not really sure how Apple is less than 10% from ATH with all this going on, but it is, we will see if they can save the market today.

From a technical standpoint for the moment we are sitting ontop of the 50 day and the 8 ema is now sloping down, this just is not a bullish setup.

We have banks failing left and right and we’re constantly told everything is ok, in fact Powell told us it was ok yesterday and PACW collapsed hours later. I understand they don't want to spook people and cause a bank run but something is very wrong with the KRE, the regional banks are just seeing massive outflows. Look at the chart below the KRE did not look ok even yesterday when Powell said everything was fine, the monster sell off today was not shocking. The regionals are signaling something very bad and the market finally seems to be accepting it.

.The weekly on the SPY might finally be breaking down like in early March. Again, last week we recovered before the week ended so no harm done, barring a big recovery tomorrow, this is a bad breakdown of the October uptrend. The last one resulted in 3 weeks of weakness, the VIX over 20 now says fear has returned.

Today’s Unusual Options Activity & What Stood Out

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