5/5/25 Recap

The SPY remains below the 200 day and today just seems like a rest day. We got more uncertainty over the weekend after the hour long Trump interview on Meet The Press. It appears that his initial comments that the 145% tariffs were off on China were not true and from his rhetoric yesterday, for the moment those are still on. Remember now this whole rally the last few weeks was because he initially said “we’re not at 145% but we’re not at zero” and now he appears to be changing his tune and the market is taking a step back. This back and forth is causing alot of confusion and the market hates the lack of clarity. So be patient and let’s see what really comes of it all, the megacaps did not guide to anything scary last week, a pullback to the 8 ema at 555.26 right now wouldn’t be too terrible. This was always going to be a big spot with the 200 day at 573 right now, either we push through that or we reject and go lower it is as simple as that. We also got news today that a trade deal with Japan is not close, that was surprising because many thought they would be the first done deal which shows you how far away we are from deals with everyone.

An example of how tough this environment is to trade is Netflix which we were initially told was a pocket of strength because of lack of tariff impact. This morning it was down 5% on the Trump film tariff comments yesterday and then now minutes ago the White House said no decision has been made and Netflix rallied to nearly flat. We literally move from headline to headline now and Trump has been so erratic that names are getting hit and recovering constantly. So do not get shaken out of things.

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