5/6/25 Recap

As we await FOMC tomorrow, today the 10 year auction at 1 pm is going to be our focus. For now, the SPY is sitting ontop of the 8 ema, so while the last few sessions felt weak, in reality, it was just a normal backtest of the 8 ema. So far so good, if we lose that, the 21 ema below at 550 would be the spot we absolutely have to hold before we would say the current short lived uptrend is over. Bessent spoke this morning and said he is negotiating with 17 or 18 countries and hopes to have some trade deals done soon, but we’ve heard that same rhetoric for weeks, I don’t know if the market can push over that 200 day just over 570 without some of these deals beginning to roll in. Very low volume yesterday and today as everyone awaits FOMC to see where we are going with rates.

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