6/12/25 Recap

The SPY continues to just bounce off the 8 ema and while that is bullish, I cannot help but see this massive rising wedge. You can also see the rsi stalling out. I know it is sacrelige to ever even mention equities not going up, but we are up over 20% in 7 weeks, if we were to take a little breather, that would be pretty normal actually. Look a rising wedge breaking down doesn’t mean we’re going to new lows, nor does it mean panic, it means if you have leverage on or short term positions you’re possibly worried about, de-risk and I did so today so I’ll discuss all the changes I made in my book below. You have to remember the market is mostly tech stocks by weight, so when the SPY rolls over, it is mostly tech that gets hit, yes they are fine long term, but occasionally they go down for a couple days too. In this case I wouldn’t look for anything crazy maybe a move down to that cluster of support around 580, if that was lost I would then worry. What’s the catalyst? Israel boming Iran? I don’t know nor do I really care, these patterns form from buying/selling patterns and that is why you look for them.

For more on what a rising bearish wedge is, here is the Google AI summary.

As for me, YTD, I’m outperforming the market by so quite a bit after getting tangled up in that nasty downturn. My usual signal to cut everything is losing the 21 ema, we have not done that so I’m not cutting everything, just my tech names because if we do roll over those will be the first hit. If I’m wrong and the market breaks up out of this wedge and I miss 1-2% that’s fine, I will still be outperforming for the year and I won’t lose any sleep over it.

With all that I said above in mind, I think its best to just not press things, its been an interesting year, I feel lucky to be up almost 20% through all this, and we don’t know what’s happening with Israel and Iran the next few days. If history is any guide, probably nothing, but its like that meme of the turkey and thanksgiving where 364 days a year things are ok for the turkey and then that 1 day comes where he gets killed. It’s best to just de-risk what you want, let the next few days play out and then get back into it.

My Open Book

Trades Today