6/13/25 Recap

The SPY broke down overnight, that was the move I was looking for by de-risking yesterday, but I did not see such a powerful recovery so quickly. We broke the rising wedge, we opened below the 8 ema and yet here we are back over 600 again. This is why I don’t short things, markets are just designed to go up and do 90% of the time. If you’re short things you better time your entry and exit perfectly. If you’re a bull you can be wrong and on a long enough timeframe you will likely be right. I don’t regret taking off tech yesterday, the gap down would have put me into a margin call with all the short puts I had and that’s the thing when you play with leverage like I do, you better be right directionally or you have issues to contend with. I still prefer to wait for the weekend to pass before deciding what to put on again. If Israel and Iran start bombing each other harder the next few days and things get out of hand, the market will certainly not like it. A couple days off from tech stocks is ok, they’re not going to run away from anyone in that timeframe.

Today reminds me of the first day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine where we gapped down big overnight and were green that first day before ultimately going lower. I’m not saying this is the same situation but if Israel is serious about eliminating the Iranian Nuclear capabilities, then it will not be a 1 time strike without a retaliation. Any tensions in the region will keep oil prices bid which will trickle into inflation data and the market won’t be happy, for today people bought the dip because people buy the dip everyday. So I’m just being cautious, I’m still plenty long things via short puts, just not really any of the megacap techs for now even though operationally they are not impacted by any of this.

My Open Book

Trades Today