6/14 Recap

Once again we are red except for a small group of names, the RSP remains on the cusp of its first breakdown below the 100 day since this massive rally began last November, we tested below it this morning but have recovered for now. It sits firmly below the 50 day and short term moving averages like the 8 and 21 ema. Basically, outside of semis and some large tech names everything else is dead.

Here is the XLE, energy is breaking below the 200 day. That isn’t bullish at all.

Then you look at the XLF and it broke down below the 100 day today today and is struggling to maintain it right now.

There are so many of these we could look at nearly every sector here is XLI with industrials firmly breaking the 100 day today.

Something just doesn’t feel right, breadth is dead, this fear and greed index published today shows fear even though the market is pretty much at all time highs.

Really look at the SPY, this is about as healthy a chart as you’ll find ever, everything sloping up, and it’s riding well above every moving average. That is thanks to pretty much a small group of stocks but their heavy weighting in the SPY is causing that

Here is the weighting for those that don’t know so look at the top 10. Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple have been nonstop. Broadcom and Lilly have also been nonstop, Berkshire is almost 50% Apple in their public book. Basically 6 stocks have been unstoppable and the rest of the market has really been struggling recently, but those 6 companies are almost 25% of the SPY, so it’s being carried.

With almost nothing outside these few names working, you have to think that focusing on other things besides the AI trade will work as this eventually begins to unwind. Laggards will catch up and the catch up trade is usually violent, look at how Apple lagged all year and in 2 months went up over 30%.

Trends

1 Week

2 Week

1 Month

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Here is today’s link to the database, it will work till monday morning at the open. I will have the rest of today’s trades added in by this evening.