6/15/25 Best Idea For The Week Ahead

We closed up friday breaking that rising wedge. If you look at the session we opened below the 8 ema(dark blue line), rose above it, and faded below it into the weekend. I don’t know what to say here other than for the moment you probably just want to be more heavily weighted energy names and less sized into tech stuff. Bottom line, the uptrend we’ve been since the April lows is breaking, if you want to go long here you’re basically hoping this was a false breakdown on the Israel/Iran chaos friday.

Look here is the reality of the situation, we are always conditioned to buy the dip on every situation ever because stocks have gone up since the beginning of time. The problem here is this, and again this is just my opinion so do with it what you will, but to me this isn’t going to be a short term conflict. They’ve had conflicts before but this time, after Israel attacked on Thursday, Iran struck the heart of Tel Aviv with missiles that caused quite a bit of damage on friday and then they fired even more on saturday. This time, Israel has made it clear their intended goal is to end the ability of Iran to have nuclear weapons. If that really is the intended goal of the campaign, this is going to be a long, drawn out conflict that will result in an elevated VIX and likely energy prices staying bid. Those two together usually do not favor the S&P going higher. Here is a chart from @methorqpro on twitter highlighting the last few times oil caught a bid

Will stocks be higher say 2 years from now? Probably, they always resolve higher, there literally has not been an event in our history where stocks did not eventually go higher. For now though meaning the next few weeks or however long it takes for this conflict to end, you’re probably going to face weakness. Now I’d look for that 200 day at 580 to hold first and if it does not, close everything there as you are opening the door to much lower prices. So no do not run out and sell your long term holdings Monday, just know that short term trades, on tech stocks are likely not going to be easy. So if you didn’t heed the warning Thursday please think again about closing up short term calls, removing leverage, and selling covered calls on positions you want to keep to generate some income as we ride this period out. As I said above, tech companies are fine but you likely need to shift your focus to other sectors in the short term to find strength. Just remember there is always a bull market somewhere and to truly be a good trader, you have to be able to put your thesis aside and pivot quickly to find what is working.

This week’s best idea is going to be an energy trade that should work, for a few weeks at least, we’re going to look at some various levels where put sellers have sold big puts and discuss a simple trade to position ourselves to make money as this conflict pushes energy prices higher. I’m also going to include down below the put sales I’ve logged on 10 other important energy names just to make levels easier for you to look for without having to search the database.