6/17/25 Recap

The SPY has been shockingly resilient in the 3 sessions since the conflict in the middle east kicked off. Like I said Thursday when I took off alot of my leverage, the market isn’t just going to run away from you. Let’s say the weekend heated up and stocks tanked, you would’ve been glad you sat it out. Even now we’re back to where we were last monday so if you missed a few days you didn’t miss much. Watching the markets reaction to this point just tells me the market thinks Israel ends this quickly and there isn’t some prolonged inflationary impact. So with that in mind I put a few tech positions back on today that I’ll discuss below, but in general, the market seems pretty indifferent on the war which is really shocking to me. I still don’t think it was the wrong call to say move aside in tech for a little bit just because had the market reacted negatively it would have been bad for tech and right now you can get back in and you really didn’t miss much. You have to be prudent sometimes and the reality is last friday nobody on earth knew what was coming over the weekend and to be honest we still don’t know how this whole thing escalates from here so any positions you take will always run the risk of something going very badly with this conflict. There is definitely a bearish divergence building here but for the moment we remain over the 21 ema which is just below 595.

My Open Book

Surprisingly yesterday was a really good day for me, even though I had taken a ton of tech off, I still had a very big day in the market ramp. Today I decided to put back some of the tech names that were seeing overwhelming action. Those could be famous last words but I sat out the last few days and I decided to go for it

Trades I Put On

1. ARM - I sold January 110 puts 800x today, this was a massive position for me and you have seen all the calls I’ve logged for weeks on end here. I still think this is a great name for the time being and its up maybe 20% since the daily call buys in the leaps began. This name is breaking out now and I didn’t want any regrets.