6/18/25 Recap

The SPY continues to drift around this 8 ema, the big catalyst today is Powell and the fed interest rate decision this afternoon. While markets are pricing in a 99% chance he does not cut, it really will be more about his rhetoric around future cuts. I’m sure he will be fielding a ton of questions about the tirade President Trump went on this morning where Trump called him a “stupid person” for refusing to lower rates. The key level to watch today is that 21 ema at 593.31. I send these recaps out mid day but if we somehow start to lose that level you definitely want to start closing things up if it looks like we’re closing below that level.

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