6/20/25 Recap

The SPY came down and tested that 21 ema for the first time in over 2 months. That is usually a first warning sign, typically you test it, you bounce, and then the second or third time you test it and fail. Now look a 21 ema break doesn’t mean doomsday when it happens, it just means you’re probably going to see weakness in tech more than anything, and you can see that today with all the megacaps weak. We have a ton of support right below at 580 where the 200 day is, the 100 day is just below that and the 50 day is sloping up so in my opinion if we did have a dip, it would be fairly shallow maybe 3% or so to that cluster of support.

Another not super bullish barometer of where we stand is bitcoin look at IBIT below, this is the 3rd straight close below the 21 ema. Bitcoin is the real momentum barometer of the market and has been for years, it even outperformed the market in April and right now it is signaling that it has no strength. We will have to see where this one settles because the 200 day is way lower at 50, but for now I’d look for that yellow line, the 50 day, just over 56 and rising to be first spot it finds support.

My Open Book

I made a couple changes to my book today but the major takeaway is I’m mostly removing my tech exposure ex ARM and HOOD, those 2 continue to have the most bullish flow so I want to be exposed but otherwise I’m not in any tech names anymore because of what I said above.

Trades Added

1. MSTR - I added another 50 strangles here, 200/700 in January. It’s pretty clear Chanos was right on the mNAV compression unfolding here, this morning bitcoin was up $2200 premarket and MSTR was up $2, in the past it would have been up 5% or more on that. I’m basically looking for it to stay over 260 and below 700 by January, a strangle sucks the premium out of both sides. I don’t see an explosion over 700 unless somehow bitcoin rises 150% in 6 months which won’t happen. If I’m assigned at 260 on my older put sales, with the premiums collected my basis would be almost $200/share so I’m ok going long there. This is my biggest position by far.