6/22/25 Best Idea For The Week Ahead

I know I usually send these on Sunday but I’m traveling tomorrow morning so I wanted to make sure I got it out today with no issues. We wrapped up the week with a close right over the 21 but now the 8 day is sloping down and if we don’t get a sharp move up early next week we are likely going to see an 8/21 bearish cross down. This would also be a lower high from earlier this year, below you can see the open gap to 567.5. Will we get there? I don’t think so just because of the amount of support we should have around 580, but anything is possible. I definitely do still think it isn’t time for tech stocks, last week I wrote up the XLE as the weekend idea and that made a strong move up over the 200 day for the first time, so keep an open mind, not every week has to be time for tech stocks, there are other sectors even though they’re mostly forgotten about. Every week you should step back and pull up all these sector charts XLV,XLE,XLB,XLP,XLI,etc and see what is looking strong. When you find one that’s looking strong if you don’t know the holdings it is very easy to google them. Once you have a strong chart and know the holdings you can easily filter through the database and see what trades those names are seeing and now you have the basis of some trade ideas.

This week we’re going to discuss a smaller cap software name which hasn’t let up at all recently. Yes tech does look bad in general, but not every name has to be bad, this name closed yesterday at 2025 highs and has some really interesting calls in the open interest which might be pointing to a buyout. We’re going to take a look at this $15B company and I have a great trade idea in mind where you can take a very low risk bet on the potential buyout and get paid to do it. Someone is betting big on a 30%+ move up in the next few months. Let’s build a trade around them using a ratio that will get you paid nicely if it goes up or even on a 10% move down in the stock.