6/2/25 Recap

The SPY gapped down overnight on the uncertainty in Europe with Ukraine bombing Russia and the alleged trade tensions with us and China ramping. The tensions with China seem like nonsense because Apple,Nike, and Starbucks are green and if China tensions were real that wouldn’t be happening. We really just continue to consolidate here over the 21 ema as it catches up and it is now at 580, it was 560 when we gapped up on the initial tariff de-escalation news and that is exactly what you want to see as we gear up for more, now you have to be wary of any closes below that moving average as your signal to cut some risk.

Oil is perking up today as /CL made a big move overnight, this has been so weak for a long time, if oil starts to catch a bid that won’t be much help for the inflation prints. Energy names have been seeing put sales for a while last week I sold puts on OXY expiring this week following that big put sale I flagged, so there have been large bets looking for short term bullishness in energy.

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