6/26/25 Recap

The SPY is now half a percent away from all time highs and continues its push after the WW3 fears subsided with the weekend ceasefire. That 600 level below into the gap should be your target as a place to sell puts lower. We’re a bit extended now from the 21 ema which is over 2% lower so I’d expect some consolidation here soon probably at all time highs until these moving averages catch up. This has been a wild move the last 60 days and we haven’t even had any meaningful trade deals announced so you have to think those are coming in July or we’re going to face some headwinds. Whatever comes as long as you’re riding the 8 ema up like this, there is nothing to be bearish about we’ve had a textbook 21 ema test followed with the sharp move higher that I said monday would be needed to make sure the 8 and 21 didn’t have a bearish cross down.

I have to rant about something before we get into today’s recap. I got this message today and of all the messages I get every week asking me when to close a position up 600% to my thoughts on shitcos I know nothing about, this one irked me the most.

Look if you’re in this substack to copy me, you should unsubscribe right now. More than that you’re doing it wrong because I’m not only explaining how to look at the market from moving averages to utilizing option flow to guide your decision making but I’m really trying to point you in the right direction on what names to trade and when/where. If I stop writing this at some point, if all you’ve learned in here is how to copy what I do, you’ve wasted your time. This substack is about taking all the option flow daily and trying to understand what names you want to trade and where the key levels are. I try to explain as best I can when you can press your leverage and when you need to dial it back. If you think this is about “my put selling strategy” you’re really wasting your time and I mean that. The only reason I share my book everyday is because I thought when I started this 3 years ago that 98% of furus were full of shit. They all discussed positions they we re in but nobody posted their book showing their size backing up how they really feel about what they were saying. With me, from the time this began I wanted to show people exactly what I was doing and let you verify how I felt about positions with the volume. Take today all the options trades I closed below, when I say I closed 1000 lot of my ARM January short puts you can clearly look at the January volume and see that happened today.

So to summarize, I utilize “my put selling strategy” because it fits my needs. When I send out this recap everyday I don’t even look at the market really if I’m honest. I check every hour or so to make sure things are going well and my margin requirements are inline but mostly I spend the afternoon hitting the gym, playing with my kids, and just living life. So my approach now is a theta decay one where time works in my favor as long I’m in the right names. It isn’t the only approach but is my favored one for the moment with a president in office who can sink stocks with just 1 tweet at anytime. So I can’t be long names or buying short term calls if I’m that disconnected from things. When I was younger and had a smaller book, I was watching the shorter timeframe 1 and 5 minute candles trading, but the premise is the same today, be in the right names at the right times and that is what this substack is about. So please stop sending me nonsense that you aren’t sure when to sell a position up 377% or you can’t copy my approach. You should sell a position whenever you’re happy with the gain and you shouldn’t be copying my approach because I’m a crazy a person with leverage who is also disciplined and will rip positions off like I did 2 weeks ago and not think twice about it. You likely don’t have that same approach to markets and you will get killed on any downturn so please try to focus on what I’m explaining, why I’m focusing on specific names and less on trying to copy me in how I trade them.

My Open Book

Trades Today

1. ARM - I closed the 1000 lot of short puts I had been in for a while, I made alot of money on these and while I do think ARM goes much higher in time, this thing has run so hot. How much is it up the last 2 months since these all began? I’d have to look through my transactions but I’ve made so much on this. Also the June 2027 call buyer has not made a purchase by now, 10:30 central, and that would be the first time in 2 months this person hasn’t stepped up, so even they may feel this is not the time. Do I see ARM going back to 110 where my short puts were, no I don’t but if it fell a few percent and let the moving averages catch up, my position would be smoked. You forget a $7 move down when you’re short 1000 puts is ALOT of money, so I closed up and I’m happy.