6/30/26 Recap
The SPY closed up over the 21 ema yesterday and technically began a new uptrend. Today was a nice continuation move and you can see the MACD is close to flipping positive for the first time in over a month. We are looking good right now, short of Iran war ramping up over 4th of July weekend, we look set to go into earnings season with markets at all times highs. There really isn’t much else context to add here, stocks are either in an uptrend or they’re in a downtrend, we just had a quick 4 day move down below the 21 ema that shook alot of people out. Now we we’re back in the clear and until we break it again it would behoove you to be long.
My Open Book
Trades I Made Today
MRVL - I sold 50 of the 260 puts for next week for 5.86. It had a lot of directionally bullish option flow for next week. This is 15% lower and this is still a name Jensen recently said he saw as having 4-5x upside from current levels. If the CEO of Nvidia says that, I can take assignment and work my way out of the trade.
Things are going well, today is end of quarter and it looks like I’m ending the first half of 2026 up just over $3.1M which is around 42%. With minimal changes from here, I think I can end the year up 80% or so if the the market just holds up. Could I have made more? Sure but I’m actually fairly conservative even with all this leverage and considering the size I’m doing it on, I’m ecstatic. As your book grows, you take less and less risk. I hope those of you watching me realize you don’t have to place 800 trades to really profit. Over the years watching me you’ll notice I make a handful of moves but I’m very aggressive in sizing them up where the option flow and chart gives me conviction. Here is my total return since I started publishing this June 8, 2022. I’m up 883% vs the S&P at 87.4% and the Nasdaq at 114.15%.
Of course I take big drawdowns, leverage works in both ways, anyone that tells you that they’re going to capture maximum upside with minimal risk is full of shit. That again is why nearly nobody posts their real book like I do. You swing big, you miss big. It’s how you deal with adjustments during the drawdowns that separates winners from losers, you’ll see many just “take a break” during a drawdown. You have to face it head on and realize stocks have been up and to the right for the last 100+ years. Stocks will always come back, but closing your longs at lows and taking a break at that time will have you underperforming forever.
Today’s Unusual Options Activity
