7/12 Recap

The market has given back most of its gains from this mornings CPI report. Inflation is “cooling”. The big rally we got was met with a swift selloff and now we’re looking at forming a pretty ugly candle on the day. Earnings season kicks off this week and Friday morning the big banks will tell us more about how things are really going in terms of consumers and lending. So lots to look forward to these next few days. Today’s big news was Microsoft pushing deeper into cybersecurity which flushed all these quality names like PANW,CRWD,ZS,FTNT as they now have a new competitor to potentially deal with.

The SPY remains in full breakout. Today’s candle is a pretty ugly doji thus far with a huge gap below, but overall the trend remains up as we continue to trade over all these short term moving averages. It remains very hard to be bearish until we get a trend break and it just hasn’t occurred. I think I’ve been fairly straightforward with my sentiment in that regard for the last few months and the market has just continued its push higher.

The TNX finally broke down, this is what I mentioned the bulls wanting to see in yesterdays recap. 4 straight moves down and now that breakout is looking like a false one. We will have to see how the next few sessions go, but just as a chart, this is not one I’d be looking to go long.

The VIX is back to a 13 handle, just incredible, I don’t know when, but it feels like we’re about to make a push for an all time low VIX in the coming weeks if big tech reports well.

.Trends

Today was the day all those bullish trades we’ve been seeing in EEM,EWZ,EWY were waiting for, a big decline in the dollar and a move higher. EWZ was my best idea two weeks back and it had a monster move up 4% today. It had been weeks of accumulation here as you can see they were some of the top trends over the monthly timeframe. That’s why I tell you all to focus on the trends unfolding. Day to day, trade by trade, none of that stuff matters, I’m focusing on the overall accumulation of unusual options to help guide us into what names we want to focus on.

Week To Date

2 Week

1 Month

Today’s Unusual Options Activity & What Stood Out

100 Trades Today . Today was a tough session, very few trades that weren’t from complete junk. The last few days have really been a collection of options trades in all these very mediocre names, its almost like people have forgotten about the real companies and all the focus is moving to these 2021 “growth” names.