7/15 Recap

I have to head to out just a little early today so you’re getting this earlier than usual. The rotation we discussed last week continues to unfold with the IWM up another near 2% today. Again this stuff doesn’t have to make sense, sure I think these companies in the IWM are junk, but that’s what they’re rotating to with September rate cut odds nearing 100% now, this trade is up almost 8% in 4 sessions far outpacing the SPY.

The SPY is fine, its trending higher still floating over the 8 ema, nothing to report.

The discussion from yesterday over what the Trump trade would be with him leading so heavily in the polls is unfolding today. Look at IBIT up 9.6%, he was a huge proponent of bitcoin recently and someone who would push the debt materially higher which is a win for bitcoin. We talked about him possibly being bad for renewable energy and today TAN is down 6% crushing the solar names. All the energy names are breaking out look at Chevron, Exxon,etc. You have your new leaders to trade infront of you now and there is your playbook for the weeks ahead. I have a really great trade below on an energy name that saw a massive call buy today. Pay attention to it.

Recent Trades

JEF - Last week in the 7/9 recap I noted the Jeffries calls here. The September 55 calls were .70 then, they’re 2.25 today as the stock has ripped up nearly 8%. A quick 3x on the calls. If you took this trade last week I’d close up the short put side of things and what I’d do here is if you want to keep it, I’d sell September $60 calls vs the trade for .50 right now. This gets you back almost everything you paid for the calls and turns this into a $5 wide call spread ie 55/60 with a .20 outlay on the calls(assuming you didn’t sell puts) Now your trade has a max upside of 25x and you got most of your initial investment.

Trends

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2 Week

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Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Here is today’s link to the database, as always it will expire tomorrow morning at the open. I will have the rest of today’s trades updated by the end of the day.