7/15/25 Recap

The SPY gave up most of the overnight move on the China/Nvidia news. Semis are on fire today, but the rest of the market is not as financials are struggling after some weak reactions from big names like WFC and BLK. We continue to hold that 8 ema so still ok for now. The bigger issue for markets now is the dollar chart I posted last week, it crossed over some big moving averages and the dollar looks bullish for the first time in a long time now. We’ll have to monitor that and how it impacts markets but usually the dollar moving up isn’t bullish for equities.

Crypto is the weak spot today and I said yesterday I thought it would be this week into “Crypto Week”. The reality is look at the IBIT chart below, nothing wrong with bitcoin, but it did just run over 10% in 3 sessions so a natural period of cooling was going to happen, now it is pulling back and the 8 ema is just under 65. I imagine it will bounce off that and continue, if it doesn’t then the 21 ema(light blue) below would be the next spot for it to stop. Gravity always wins in markets and you can only get so extended before things normalize.

My Open Book

Trades I Added