7/15/26 Recap

The SPY continues to trend up, there’s a clear rotation going on under the surface where money is flowing to megacap tech and out of the semis and bottlenecks. Look that trade has worked all year and you can feel the shift coming the last few days but today it is in full swing. There isn’t really much else to say about the market, the chart below shows us over the 8 ema and we’re just in a good spot now, there are always going to be pockets of weakness and semis are it for now.

Speaking of semis, look at the SMH, it had multiple tests of the 50 day recently and you know what that means, usually repeated tests lead to a failure and while the last 3 breakdowns of the 50 day day were instantly recovered, this might actually be the one where it doesn’t. At least until someone steps in a stops the bleeding with something big on an earnings call. ASML had a great report last night and that still couldn’t save the space. Look at all the tickers you’re seeing tons of underside rejections of key moving averages and there is alot of room lower to that 100 day just over 500. Oddly enough, NVDA broke out yesterday, so it seems like more of a rotation from the smaller semi names and into NVDA and other megacaps.

My Open Book

Trades I made today