7/2 Recap

Alright so tomorrow is a half session in the market before the 4th of July holiday. It should be a pretty slow day so I won’t be around. I will be back friday morning as that is a normal session.

As for today it was another session of nothing, this is the longest we’ve gone sideways since around new year’s where the market also did this for a month. Earnings season kicks off with all the big banks next friday so it appears the market is going to remain in no man’s land until we hear some earnings. You can see today’s volume is negligible, nobody is around this week, even friday will likely be a slow session so I wouldn’t make too much out of anything that goes on this week. The VIX is sitting at just over 12 after dipping below it for a little, this is just a period of no fear whatsoever, typically when you should be adding puts especially with how close we are to a break of the 21 ema.

Oil continues to push higher as Hurricane Beryl pushes towards land. This is a disastrous category 5 hurricane right now and the earliest one has been recorded ever. This was sadly part of me thesis a few weeks back when I wrote up that weekend best idea on GNRC, the fact that this hurricane season was set to be one of the worst ever. Oil could be a big beneficiary of repeated disruptions the coming months.

Recent trades

RDDT - I highlighted this one on friday here when it was 63.xx it is up 5% today and 11% in 2 sessions to over 70 right now. This call spread below for July went from 1.85 to 3.70 in 2 days, really quick move, with a holiday coming up and a short timeframe to go I’d be taking these off if you entered. The chart looks great but if you made 100% in 2 days there’s no sense getting greedy. I’d hold onto the short put side of things.

Trends

Notice how the trending leaders has shifted away from NVDA the last week and Nvidia continues to be weak near daily now. Meanwhile Apple and Amazon are seeing continued strength and highs as they’ve moved into the leadership roles in terms of option flow. It’s very rare to see a name be a trend with repeated big bullish option flow and it doesn’t work. They rotated heavily into Apple and Amazon for the last couple weeks and it was all there in the bullish flow. Look how many massive Apple put sales I noted today below.

1 Week

2 Week

1 Month

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Here is today’s link to the database, as always it will expire FRIDAY morning at the open as I will be back then and of course there is no market thursday. The rest of today’s trades will be added this afternoon.