7/20/26 Recap
The SPY gapped back up over the 50 day after its second close below it in 4 months. These breakdowns are turning into headfakes nearly every single time as we got news yesterday that kimi was having to turn down new users because of lack of compute which regignited the same semi trade that it killed last week. Very tough market with all the back and forth headlines but right now we’re below the 21 ema and sitting on the 50 day, the bulls need a strong bounce here and it is likely going to depend on big earnings reports this week from names like Google and Intel giving strong guides and calming all the fears around the AI trade. As for the Iran war, another weekend of us striking them and everyone preparing for a war followed by Rubio this morning saying they want to make a deal and oil selling off. At this point it is pretty clear that whenever the government wants oil lower, and it does into midterms, it can just pull out the potential deal talk and flush it at will.
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