7/24/26 Recap

The SPY is green today but starting to build under the 50 day with a long weekend ahead of us bombing Iran. There is a massive buildup right now of forces in the region and although we’ve attacked for 2 weeks straight, the consensus is this weekend will be the big attack. Trump has less than 4 months till midterms, he almost has to bomb them into submission ASAP if he has any prayer of getting oil to fall fast enough to matter at the pump for voters. Will it work? Who knows but the chart here remains very broken. If you’re looking for bullish optimism, the vix isn’t soaring and oil is red today. You could also argue for now that we are putting in a higher low vs the late June lows we saw. You’re not going to miss much waiting until we reclaim the 50 day overhead because if we don’t we could have a large rollover towards that 100 day just under 720. I still think the environment is just not a good one for calls shorter than 3 months out until we’re back over the 50 day at 745.14 right now.

Tech stocks really remain the issue with the QQQ, below, closing in on the 100 day with it now being less than 3% away. This has been a very nasty unwind in the ai trade over the last 2 months and you have some huge reports next week that will make or break this one.

Here is the thing to remember, there is a whole world outside tech. The RSP, below, is just 1% away from highs. This is the equal weight index and it is breaking a downtrend today. I know everyone is mostly always in tech and that usually is the right move because tech leads the majority of the time but occasionally other sectors lead and right now tech is the laggard and it’s very visible in the equal weight index where it is is higher now than it was in early June while the Nasdaq is down 10% from the start of June.

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These are the large cap names that came up in my momentum scan, as always the rest of the names and various scans are searchable in the database by clicking the scanner tab.

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