7/25 Recap

Another day and another 100 points higher for the /NQ. This move has been nonstop for months now, today is going to be a big tell regarding the reality of it all. Microsoft and Google report after the bell and what they say in regards to their guidance should be a big deal to what happens to the market going forward. The 8 ema has finally caught up, do we stay above or do we break below it? We should have an answer this afternoon with 2 of the the 4 largest companies reporting.

The weekly look is incredible, we are now less than 5% away from the 2021 highs but just as we were then we are at overbought readings on the RSI. You would think after being straight up for the last 7 months a cooling period would occur at some point.I have alot of megacap puts bought in the notes below today so be vigilant. We don’t know if those are hedges or people preparing for bad prints from MSFT and GOOG.

Oil continues a very impressive move up just under $80 now, FOMC could send this into the 80’s again which would be a worrisome development for inflation, but it too is reaching overbought levels like equities.

Trends

FCX had a huge followthrough today with metals up 4%. The EEM continues its push higher with China finally working. EWZ and VALE also pushed higher again with VALE up another 3% today. I wrote up BALL last week and the short puts there and it continues its big move up closer to 60 now and they keep selling puts lower there with more today. Lots of interesting things in these trends if you’re following them. On the bearish side AMC is down 11% and leading the way on the short term bearishness.

Week To Date

2 Week

1 Month

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

124 Trades Today

Looking back over yesterday’s recap one that stood out to me was IRDM, it’s now down 13% and someone bought 2500 puts on it just yesterday. Incredible trade that turned out to be.