7/25 Recap

I hate making statements like this but I think big tech bottomed today. That is of course assuming the day ends where we are now or higher. We approached the 100 day, the white line, and are forming a big hammer candle right now. A hammer is when you test lows and move up and close at the highs. Now I don’t know where we close because I send these recaps out mid day, but the action so far seems to indicate that is a possibility today. Again as long as we’re under the 21 ema(light blue line) , and we are well under it, tech stocks are going to be weak, and they’re going to be sold, but bottoming action occurs on a washout like today where all the names flush and reverse. If you look around, most of the big tech names have a similar candle. You now have a tradable bottom in all of them, today’s lows as your risk, and cut below there.

GDP came in way better than expected, actually 100% higher, which actually bodes better for megacap than small caps. The whole small cap run has been predicated on the notion we cut rates in September, but if the economy is running that hot, how can you cut rates? Nonetheless IWM is up 2% as small caps continue to lead us. If the September rate cuts don’t unfold, this will be the biggest loser.

Recent Trades

ODFL - this was in the recap 2 days ago with the stock just over 190 it is 207.50 right now. Someone placed a really cool risk reversal for a credit selling 180 puts to buy 210 calls in August, today ODFL is up 7%. This is a trucking name, the premiums aren’t very big like a tech stock because they don’t move like this. Those $210 calls were $1.95 yesterday, they’re $6.40 right now and because of the put sales, this cost nothing out of pocket. Unbelievable trade.

Trends

1 Week

2 Week

1 Month

Today’s Unusual Options Flow

Here is today’s link to the database as always this will expire tomorrow at the open and the rest of today’s trades will be added by the afternoon.