7/27/26 Recap

The SPY is actually green today while tech is getting hit hard. This remains under the 50 day which is not good but we’re pressing up against it and trying to recover possibly today. We have a big FOMC this week, some megacap earnings, and we had our umpteenth temporary ceasefire in the Iran war this weekend which sent oil spiraling lower. That massive block of XLE puts I highlighted friday paid off big time just 1 session later and it should be clear to anyone watching at this point that this war is always dialed back the minute oil prices start to get out of hand. The technical picture here is not the best, but most of the damage remains contained to the semi trade and not much else.

The SMH is now down 4.5% and approaching the 100 day as it continues this downtrend it has been in. Nvidia is leading the way down over 5% today. Semis and the ai trade are unwinding hard and now bulls really need that 100 day just below at 521.46 today and rising to hold. If that can’t support this, then the door is open to the 200 day way down at 450. Semis need a surprise capex boost from the megacaps reporting this week, that could save them, but any inline capex spend and this is probably going to get even uglier. Look these can’t be the only trade all year, the move they made from April to June was legendary and now there’s a cooling off for a bit. The SMH was 359 at the lows of the war in March, its 538 right now, so yes this is painful but these are up so much over the last 3 months even still.

Scanner

Here are the large caps the database scanner flagged for momentum, the rest of the mid and small caps along with the rest of today’s scans can be found in the database link below. This isn’t good for the general market when the scans of strength include JNJ,ALL,TRV,CB, and MO. Those are all very defensive names. You’re not seeing any tech names in these scans and that should tell you where you should be focusing for the moment in this period of weakness.

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