7/29/25 Recap

The SPY is looking exhausted here, we’re comically extended from the 21 week, and although nothing is confirmed till we lose this 8 ema at a minimum, I took off a ton of risk today which I will discuss below. I don’t really care if we go higher, I’ve been around this market for a long time and I understand me being up over 100% in 3 months on my entire book is not normal and this isn’t time to keep pressing my luck. Tomorrow is FOMC and who knows what comes of that. We are still looking technically fantastic and normally I wouldn’t close until something breaks down but I didn’t like some things I saw in premarket action today and closed most things at the open. Breadth is not good, the VIX is perking up, you’re seeing crypto weakness, basically it is ok to be a little cautious sometimes and I’m sure all of you are up plenty this year, just don’t be pigs now.

My Open Book

As you guessed, I made some huge changes to my book today. We have gone straight up for 3+ months, I definitely in mid April did not think I’d be up 53% YTD come end of July. I have far exceeded any expectation I had coming into this year and honestly, it is time for me to dial back risk. I reduced a ton of leverage into FOMC tomorrow and I took one massive new position, let’s talk about why