7/29/26 Recap

The SPY continues to build under the 50 day with our 5th straight sessions potentially closing below there today. We also have oil spiking 7.5% right now as Trump flushed the market this morning with his commentary on hitting Iran really hard now. He is changing his mind near daily at this point and the market hates the uncertainty. Korea also sank 6% last night following an 11% drop the night before. Korea has become a disaster for us with their nightly margin calls and Kospi losing 50% in a month. Alot can change this afternoon, we have a big FOMC coming up and an interest rate decision along with big earnings from Microsoft,Meta, ARM, Lam Research, and Qualcomm after the bell. These offer potential hope in stopping the semi bleeding. Someone or multiple here could very well surprise and raise guidance beyond estimates and excite the segment of the market that seems to be giving up on the long term thesis at the moment.

The SMH, below, continues to be where most of the pain lies. Today it appears it may have its first close below the 100 day since March and even that was short lived with just 2 closes below there. Nvidia is losing the 200 day for the first time in months today and that is the largest component here, the breakdown here has been epic with the Kospi. Until the Korean market can get some footing, our semis are not going to be able to settle down. This needs a reversal soon or it is heading for that 200 day way lower at 450.

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