7/6/25 Best Idea For The Week Ahead

The SPY just had its highest weekly close ever for the 2nd week in a row. This is a raging bull market for now and the market is now up 7% on the year. The appetite for equities is so strong when there aren’t tariff wars at stake or wars looming in the Middle East. Equities are getting very pricey historically, but none of that matters as this breakout continues. In real terms, this isn’t as exciting as it looks because the dollar is continuing its plunge this year. If you glance at the chart below of the last 3 years, do you notice anything? That light blue line is the 21 week and we have never been this extended from it as it sits almost 7% lower. So if history is any guide we should consolidate or have a slight move down sometime soon to meet that.

Actually, this is the most extended we have been from the 21 week since 2018 and here is how that one ended below. Gravity always wins and markets don’t usually stay extended for long, but this time could be different and there is always firsts for everything so have to keep an open mind. What makes this all potentially different is the dollar weakness, people are just rapidly exiting dollars and what better place to park them than the US equity market. The newly signed Big Beautiful Bill doesn’t do much to help any future prospects of the dollar strengthening.

This weeks best idea is the top trending name in my database over the last week, let’s take a look at some ways to play this thing where you get paid to do, I have a few trades for different trade budgets including a great ratio to discuss that could pay fortunes if the story unfolds just right.