7/6/26 Recap

The SPY marches on above the 21 ema, this is now 4 sessions into this new uptrend we’re in. While we have yet to make new highs, this is progress. The first thing I’d like to see is us getting over the 6/15 highs, I don’t want this to turn lower and be 3rd lower high. The macd is flipping positive as well for the first time since mid May and we’re really looking quite strong. The strength in markets this year without the 6 biggest companies participating is impressive, even this recent move lower, we broke the 50 day for 1 session and instantly recovered, that is what you see in a bull market.

The big laggard last week was semis and we’re not out of the woods there, yet. The SMH, below, is still below the 21 ema even with the 4% move up today and the leader of the entire space, NVDA, continues to be very weak despite very strong fundamentals and a cheap valuation. Something just doesn’t feel right with these, but from a technical perspective, bulls would like to see the 21 ema reclaimed soon, this is going for 2 closes in a row under the 21 ema and you don’t want it to start building under that level.

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