7/7/25 Recap

The SPY is taking a small breather consolidating over the 8 ema today, nothing really notable. There is some weakness in tech with Tesla leading the way after the Trump and Elon spat took another leg up this weekend. Semis are also lagging a bit with some notable names down 2-5%. We also have Trump speaking this afternoon apparently announcing some new trade deals at the closing bell which will likely be a market moving event.

A point of concern for market bulls would be the DXY, look at this dollar chart below going back almost 2 decades. We’ve been in this nice channel going back 15 years and we are at the bottom of it right now. If the dollar doesn’t bounce here it is falling into the abyss. While that would be great for all assets, the dollar plunging off a cliff like this is not a good thing for society at large. So I would expect they would save the dollar right here sometime soon, it has fallen so hard all year and if it was ever going to bounce this is the spot. A move up in the dollar would be a drag on equities as they’ve been rallying so hard inverse the dollar recently. I really couldn’t give you a bull case on the dollar as the big beautiful bill passage last week should have been a death blow to it, but charts are charts.

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