8/13 Recap

We are pushing right up into the underside of the 21 ema before tomorrow mornings big CPI print. This structure is still technically a bear one called a rising wedge. Look at the last 7 days of the QQQ and you can see it. Can it be invalidated? Sure a strong move over the 21 ema would do that, but for now we’re just stuck below it right before the big inflation reading tomorrow. If you’ve made a lot of money over the last week on this bounce in tech stocks, taking some off isn’t the worst thing as this could be the run up into CPI before a selloff. Again if we re-enter an uptrend over the 21 ema you will have plenty of time to press things. We’ve been under the 21 ema since mid July so maybe our 1 month bear market is nearing an end, tomorrow will be the answer.

Recent Trades

SBUX - in yesterday’s recap I highlighted the 4000 calls bought at 78 for next week on Starbucks, they closed at 88 cents yesterday and this morning Starbucks fired their CEO and brought in the Chipotle CEO and those calls are up almost 20x right now even as its fallen $4 off highs. That was impeccable timing by whoever bought those, probably one of the few times actual insider trading is caught by option flow otherwise someone took a really lucky stab at some calls expiring next week in size and it worked out way better than even they imagined. Even those December 2026 leaps I suggested yesterday went from 6.90 to 15 right now, that’s insane for leaps to go up over 100% in 1 session. If you caught any of this I would close up, this is a once in a lifetime move on a CEO change, I’m sure it will keep going but you can sell puts lower and try to get in on a gap fill, Starbucks still has a customer problem and I’m not sure how a new CEO fixes that.

Trends

2 Week

1 Month

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Here is today’s link to the database, as always it will expire tomorrow at the open and the rest of today’s trades will be added by the afternoon. Too many trades to fit on here today so you’ll need to use the link to see them all.