8/13/25 Recap

The SPY gapped up again, what’s new? VIX futures are red but like we’ve done so many times recently we faded to red after a large gap. It almost feels like a blowoff top in the market, we’re green everyday, people are posting screenshots of how much they’re making but the reality is the market is barely up 10% this year. What worried me today was alot of recent leaders were red with markets green, we just aren’t consolidating at all, we go up every single session and as I’ve mentioned a few times recently we are as extended from the 21 week as we’ve been in years. To say things are stretched is an understatement, valuations are high on an earnings basis if that mattered, and I just think some caution is warranted which for me means dialing back the leverage a tad. I took off some positions you’ll see below. and I added one huge new position. I remain bullish of course because we’re in an uptrend, but on a scale of 1-10 I’d say my bullishness right now is a 3 and instead of being max levered up like I was yesterday, I’m only slightly levered up right now.

Look at the rankings my database right now, the names that have been the most bullish since August 1 have been huge pockets of leadership. Alot of you email me saying you don’t play with options how can you utilize this data, well looking at the data below, even buying and holding the top trending names can work out well for you. You see my approach I sell puts into top trending names because I feel like if they’re going to go up, my short puts will decay quickly.

My Open Book