8/15 Recap

First off before I get into today’s recap, I just wanted to say thank you to all of you who are here, I just hit 2000 subscribers and what’s crazy is this has grown another 33% from when this quarter began. I know some cancel every week and leave me a scathing complaint about the pricing but overall, most have found that there is alot of value in these recaps. I still can’t really believe what this has become especially the discord community which has been so great with me not on Twitter anymore, it’s a great place to interact with great people everyday. So thank you again for trusting me enough to give you the information you seek regarding the market.

As for the market, China surprised everyone with a rate cut overnight that spooked many. This morning we had a surprising beat on retail sales up .7% vs the expected .4% that likely was heavily influenced by Amazon Prime Day last month. The American consumer continues to display resilience in the face of everything the fed is trying to do. We did see some weak data on housing where the NAHB Housing Market Index came in at 50 it was 56 previously and 56 was the estimate. Overall nothing of note, sellers just looking for any excuse to sell, we remain firmly within the longer term uptrend. The white uptrend line is all I care about, nothing else matters, above it we stay long, below it, we get cautious.

On a shorter term basis we are still entrenched below this 8 ema so the repeated weakness makes sense just like when we were above it for weeks on end we just couldn’t go lower.

Yesterday we had a flurry of 13f releases and I got countless emails about them. The reality is, I do not care too much about those as mostly they are old and we do not know whether they are still in those positions. Those are positions as of 6/30, the end of Q2, they very well could be out by now. That’s why the options market is the most important thing to watch. My recaps everyday show you the positioning as it occurs daily. Yesterday someone asked me about the Duquesne Family Office 13-f and here it it is, what you will notice is one of his top buys was OPCH and that isn’t a ticker most know or look at, sure enough, I had noted 2 massive trades back in June on it. Look at it now, the chart looks nice and it is a 5% position for one of the best fund managers of all time now. The options market remains the only place to see this action well before it is disclosed to the retail public. We knew in here that someone was loading OPCH in massive size 50 days ago, the retail public found that out yesterday.

Speaking of odd action in the options market, have you all kept up with Groupon? It is up 4x from when I began noting odd flows on it in May. In the July 18th recap I highlighted it multiple times as it was showing up in the top trends.

7/18 Recap

The trends system you see everyday isn’t something you will not see anywhere else because it was my concept of how to model the options data to see where the flow was going. I even said that I thought GRPN was junk but the repeated flows were very notable. It was $6.50 that day, today it is $10.25 up another 5% today alone. They were non stop in this name

Really, even since those calls above, look what else has come in. This is the point I try to emphasize to you all, it’s not about the name you like seeing 1 random trade, it is about finding what names are seeing repeated bullish action and those being the names that have higher probabilities of working out. In a small name like GRPN that amount of bullish action is very notable.

Trends

Week To Date

2 Week