8/16 Recap

We bounced to green after opening deeply red after housing starts. This morning. Here were the housing starts numbers courtesy of zerohedge and they show basically back to covid lows on that, surely 9% mortgages have something to do with that.

The SPY meanwhile shrugged it off and turned back up. We’ve discussed this alot in here, stocks are not the economy and the economy isn’t stocks so get that out of your head. The S&P is over 30% simply the 6 biggest companies in our market, those companies are not 30% of our economy. We have been back in an uptrend for 4 sessions now, today you can see the 8 ema(dark blue) crossing over the 21 ema(light blue) for a textbook 8/21 bullish crossover on the SPY. There isn’t anything to say here other than the breakdown in mid July is over, that was a brutal month, and now we’re back to the same thing we’ve done for 200 years, stocks up and to the right. Will there be another dip? I’m sure at some point and you’ll see it the same way we’ve seen every other dip, it all starts with that 21 ema breakdown. Until then, you’re now free to press longs as the trend has resumed up.

Speaking of this move up, as you all know I said I took a big stake in NVDA last monday morning on the crash, I paid 94.xx and I never thought I’d be up $30/share in 2 weeks. I’m not sure what I’m going to do before earnings but if you’re happy with the gain, close it that is alot of money, very quickly. I may end up keeping these shares for a while.

Recent Trades

SPHR - I dug back a month on this one to here on 7/10 after the massive move this week. At the time SPHR was 41.04 and a huge trade came in buying a 40/55 call spread for September. IT got as high as +9% today over 50 but has pulled back to 49 now up just 5%. The trade I drew up below went profitable over 41.50 and would be up over $9 now from that 1.50 outlay. Trades like this when they go well and and support holds can turn very profitable because of all the extra leverage being thrown into the call side of things. Even the original 40/55 call spread the big player bought went from 3.90 to nearly 10 right now but that tiny wrinkle of selling puts could have amplified the returns.

Trends

2 Week

1 Month

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Here is today’s link to the database, as always it will expire monday morning at the open and the rest of today’s trades will be added by this afternoon.