8/21/25 Recap

The SPY remains weak before Jackson Hole tomorrow, PPI came in hot today and honestly the case for a cut gets slimmer and slimmer no matter how much President Trump keeps wanting one. I don’t know what comes of tomorrow but from the price action today where TLT sank to lows as rates rose combined with call sales on rate sensitive names like RKT I’m tempted to think tomorrow is not bullish for those looking for rate cuts. What does that mean? Usually that would be a rotation back to things like megacaps but with the QQQ breaking down I don’t know if that’s where money will rotate to this time.

The SPY is barely clinging onto the 21 ema below, it is still early in the session but this isn’t a breakdown yet like the QQQ, just like yesterday if we close below that level which is 635.57 today, you need to lighten up unless you’re willing to risk tomorrow is a big risk on day and this is just another headfake like the one 2 weeks ago.

The QQQ broke down yesterday and is seeing a followthrough today, barring a very big move tomorrow, this is looking at an 8/21 bear cross down in the next day or two.

The TLT continues to break to lows which isn’t what you’d be seeing if tomorrow was going to be a clear cut discussion on rates being cut.

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