The SPY continues to struggle with a potential close under the 21 ema occurring today. We also appear close to an 8/21 bearish cross down in the next few sessions barring a very sharp move up which likely would come from NVDA earnings. That is pretty much the last hope this wednesday before we see what the Jackson Hole fed meeting brings on friday. This is ugly, 9 of the last 10 sessions have had a red candle but oil is down and the vix is still under 16. Today’s big move down in ai names was from Samsung getting his 9% last night. This whole ai trade is turning chaotic recently where every other day some name is down double digits and causing a selloff in those names. We’re in a small rough patch for the ai names that have led all year which is why most people are feeling alot of pain even though we’re not far off highs. I think ultimately these catch another bid into the biggest ipo of the ai era in Anthropic in the coming weeks even the space junk names if you remember had a huge run up that topped around 2 weeks before the SpaceX ipo. I think we will see something somewhat similar with these names as well as the hype starts to kick in soon.
If we zoom out a little the SPY is just coming into the 8 week right now. From the time we crossed over the 21 week(light blue) on the ceasefire news, the SPY has not broken below it. That level is just over 739 and rising right now, so if you’re a put seller I would target that level as my spot to get long the SPY with a tight stop on a close below.
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Here are today’s large cap momentum scans from the database, the rest of the small and mid cap scans are available in the link below.
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