8/25

We had Powell give his speech this morning where he spoke of higher rates if he had to when it comes to breaking inflation. The market is calling his bluff knowing we can’t sustain at these rates as long as Powell says we can. The cat and mouse game we’ve played for the last year is going to continue until Powell gives in and cuts rates like the market is pricing in.

Today the only chart that matter is the SPY below, we’re back at that nearly year long trendline and just like last week, we’re hoping for a close above it. Today that number would be somewhere in the 437.50 range, we dipped below it this morning to 435.xx but have since recovered to 437.69 as I write this. We will have to see where this closes in a couple hours but the weakness has been notable for 4 weeks now. As you can see the macd on the weekly is flipping negative right now as well for the first time since this uptrend began. This is time to be cautious whether it be raising some cash or being aggressive selling covered calls as we teeter on breaking the trend. Most importantly do not panic, just utilize the defensive mechanisms available to you and covered calls are a great one.

Trends

The one that stands out to me here is CRWD. They haven’t reported yet and PANW had a fantastic quarter last week yet over the last month I’ve only noted 5 trades on CRWD and they’re all bearish. Weird to see on such a popular name. We will have to see what comes of that one next week. This is all I’ve seen there in the last 30 days

Week To Date

2 Week