8/26/25 Recap

The SPY is hanging on right over the 8 ema so far today, 641.28 is the level to watch right now and you want to see a close over that if you’re bullish. The market is really just in wait and see mode until the big NVDA report tomorrow. That will impact so many names and likely decide the fate of our market over the next few weeks. Obviously NVDA will have great numbers but there are lots of fears over potential guidance warnings with China uncertainty.

Bitcoin looks dead right now, I get more emails about bitcoin than anything else so figured we could discuss it here. I closed out my bitcoin trades last week on that first close under the 50 day just 4 days back. Friday was a big headfake but IBIT has resumed lower and now it looks headed for that 100 day which is at 60 and rising now. Obviously long term it is fine as the core thesis of the trade hasn’t changed but if you’re in for short term trades, they probably shouldn’t be to the long side until this reclaims some of these key levels overhead. You can see the weakness below from the minute the 8 ema crossed down through the 21 ema a few sessions back, you have to respect those sorts of things if you’re going to be in short term trades.

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