8/28 Recap

We gapped up and gave it all back as we’ve done seemingly daily for the last few weeks. The market can’t seem to sustain any strength as the higher for longer narrative is now weighing in on growth names. Powell spoke Friday and reiterated his commitment to higher rates for a longer period of time and tech names were not happy with that. While I do think that is a bluff and we will be cutting sooner than later, in the short term Powell spooked investors again.

The SPY has a nice bullish divergence building and the macd is near a positive flip. If the market gets any cooperation from megacap tech soon equities can really run but with a holiday coming up Monday, this week probably doesn’t see much action.

The TNX has pulled back nicely off the recent highs & a combination of lower treasuries & the VIX sub 16 now should be bullish for equities but as we learned in 2022, you can have all the rotation you want, but without megacap tech working, the market isn’t going anywhere, their weighting is just too much to overcome.

I’m finally back this week, Im going to begin slowly adding other positions in the next few days likely after these monthly candles close out but overall was hoping the VIX would be higher by now, it just hasn’t done anything in months, the amount of complacency in our markets is astounding considering all the potential risks. It makes it difficult to utilize any leverage and without leverage you’re just going to have a hard time generating outsized gains.

Trends

As I noted in Friday’s recap something appeared to be brewing negatively at CRWD and sure enough this morning it got a big downgrade and the name is down 3.5% as of now, on the flip side amongst the top trending names you saw BSX all last week and today it was +5%. The trends continue to catch many of these moves before they occur. Obviously when I highlight 25+ names a week not every single one is going to work but there are many gems amongst them. Take HE I highlighted in last Wednesday and today it is up 44% as I type this.

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Today’s Unusual Options Flow

HZNP was another that popped 5.5% today that caught my eye, I had noted it multiple times the last few weeks and it went right over 113 at its highs of the day, a big win for all those call buyers.