8/28/25 Recap

The SPY is holding up after the NVDA print yesterday. The good news is things are ok as long as we’re drifting over the 8 ema, the bad news is we’re 1 decently bad sessions away from breaking the 21 ema which is now just 1% lower. Will it be tomorrow after the PCE release? I don’t know but while things are feeling good right now, just be vigilant and realize in 1 session you might need to pivot quickly so keep your eye on that 21 ema which is just under 640 right now. As far as news driven catalysts all the megacap earnings are out of the way, things are fine, if anything derails the market here it is going to be tariff or inflation related. Next week is a short week with Labor Day on monday so be mindful of that when you’re putting on trades for next week. We very well could be making a double top here with the early August highs, you can’t make a call like that but I’d like to see us push out of this range so that isn’t a topic of discussion. Overall though the small cap theme seems like the place to be and I’ve mentioned that many times recently plus you see my book, alot of names I would never be in normally, I’ve sold puts on because that’s the space that’s hot right now.

When the small caps are running like this you want to look at the IWM not the SPY. What you can see below is the IWM is almost 3% away from the 21 ema vs the SPY at 1%. The outperformance is notable and it is very clear that this is where money is rotating which is why you’re seeing these powerful moves in all some names I sold puts on like BE,CRWV,RDDT,etc. There’s always a bull market somewhere and it doesn’t always have to be the same handful of names. There’s always a rotation under the hood and names that led a month back like MSFT,META, and HOOD have seen money flow out and it is flowing into these others. It’s always visible in a chart, after all that is what a chart is, a visualization of buying/selling. One thing you will notice about MSFT,META, and HOOD is all 3 are below the 21 ema so their relative weakness shouldn’t surprise anyone who obeys that rule.

My Open Book

Trades I Put On Today

1. BILL - I sold to open 1000 BILL puts at 35 in November, I got an average price of .91 and I mentioned BILL 2 days ago but I had no desire to play earnings so I waited for that and now I’m going to play the post earnings drift for 3 months till November

2. WYNN - I sold 500 of the January 100 puts today just under $2 each, there was a monster roll up to 50,000 of the December 120 calls bought today so I felt comfortable selling these puts at 100 because if this player is wrong they’re losing over $60m if it does go below $120 by year end.

3. CRWV - I rolled up 55 short puts in January to 65 for 1.61 in credit. I wrote this up over the weekend as my best idea and it had an incredible 10%+ move so far this week. We all saw this coming, this was the top trending name in the database with calls galore over $100 in a 2-3 day period.