8/4/25 Recap

The SPY shockingly bounced back over the 21 ema after taking over 3 months to close below it. Is it bullish again, I don’t want to say yes because we’re still stuck below that 8 ema and that’s right where the selling today took place. I would say unless you’re really in need of catching up to the market, you can go long with stops if that 21 ema breaks again but for me, I’m perfectly content giving this a little time and waiting before I really press all my leverage again. As you saw last week, my idea of bearish means simply toning down the leverage that’s about it, I’m never really a bear or all cash, I just move to things like TLT and have less tech put sales on that’s about it. Usually when that 21 ema breaks it is a bearish trend beginning but this market is something else in 2025 and we spent 1 whole day under the 21 ema since April 24th and it was immediately bought up. It’s really hard to be bearish in that tape, but you have to be mindful that we are not out of the woods yet with that 8 ema at 630.21 blocking us for now. For me to say we’re in the clear I’d need to see a new high over 639.85 until then anything we do is possibly setting up a lower high.

My Open Book

Trades I Put On Today