8/4/26 Recap

The SPY opened up at new all time highs and this is now a breakout. It’s amazing how much sentiment can change in just 4 sessions but that is how the market goes which is why you can’t ever really take a break or step aside, you never know when or what will cause the run. Today we finally had semis playing along and those have been the laggard for 2 months now, if they can catch a bid who knows where we can go. The big issue here is alot of today’s move was on the comments from Scott Bessent that by tomorrow we would have a deal with Iran. If that really happens, then today’s move makes sense, the market has been waiting for that, but if we don’t get it, we would like go lower and fast. We also have huge earnings from AMD today which will ripple through the entire semi trade. So we have 2 major catalysts today and I wouldn’t blame you for taking profits today on this incredible rally of 6% in 4 days. Don’t say the market didn’t give you a chance to get out if today was a false breakout. The VIX is also green right now with the market up huge which is another sign of caution.

The SMH is finally back over the 21 ema, if it closes up here, it would be the first close in over a month. If semis start to play catch up, these can power the market by themselves. Oddly today you’re seeing software and semis up concurrently which is something we haven’t seen often in 2026. Again this one especially can close over the 21 ema today and then fall apart afterhours with a bad print from AMD so this entire sector basically has earnings today.

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