8/8/25

The SPY continues this push higher over the 8 ema, we’re getting close to previous highs at 639.85. This has been a great snapback after last friday’s breakdown and with megacap laggards like Apple finally picking up steam, I’m not sure what is going to bring this lower. You need the megacaps to start cracking for a down move and literally all of them, even tesla, are looking very good right now. Jackson Hole in 2 weeks is probably the bears next potential catalyst lower. We still remain as extended from the 21 week as we’ve been in years.

Take a look at AMD below, look at that 21 ema(light blue line). Look how it perfectly held it this week and resumed higher after that weak earnings reaction. Do you see why I consider that the most important moving average in the market? It keeps you in check on whether you’re in an uptrend or not. Look how many perfect bounces off the 21 ema AMD had in the last few months. When you’re looking at a chart you can always sell puts off the 21 ema and if that closes below there, you close up the trade for hopefully a nominal loss. You have to be mindful of where that is on everything and this chart from this week is a perfect representation of why.

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