9/10 Recap

Tomorrow morning we get the CPI release which should have a major impact on what the fed is about to do with rates plus the presidential debate tonight, so with all that in mind I don’t think it’s very wise to put on any new positions today unless you have some conviction on how those are going to go. We’re already seeing chaotic moves in markets where the NQ, below, just tumbled 200 points in a matter of minutes and then bounced back up 100 points. You’re getting some violent moves before 2 pretty large catalysts we have in the next 24 hours. Who knows how tomorrow goes, but lots of players are getting out of the way beforehand, we will see if that is the right move soon.

The SPY, below, rejected the 50 day overhead today and remains stuck below all these moving averages, this is just not bullish at all, we can gap up over all this tomorrow or any other day, but right now things are just not bullish. You might miss a small amount, but it is better to wait for a bullish trend to confirm above the 21 ema than try to pontificate when it happens. Buying now is fine if you have a longer horizon, but short term, who knows how long this weakness remains. Today banks were hit hard with JPM down 7%, those have been the strongest sector the last few months and it seems like money is finally rotating out.

Recent Trades

NUVL - In the 8/21 recap I noted some odd, aggressive put selling on this obscure biotech here. The stock is up 11% in 20 days days since to 87 right now. These obscure tickers deliver so often its incredible, its just hard to think about sizing them because you don’t trust them but when these players make these odd bets it is usually for a reason.

Trends

Tesla is definitely the one seeing the most flow recently, just look how many I logged today, if you remember early in the summer it ran hard on the 8/8 robotaxi reveal then collapsed after they delayed that. Now the event is coming soon and the players are coming back hard for it.

1 Week

2 Week

1 Month

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Here is today’s link to the database, as always it will expire tomorrow at the open and I will have the rest of today’s trades added to the database by this afternoon.